Background: In the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a key driver of firms’ innovative and competitive transformation. However, the mechanisms through which AI adoption influences export performance, particularly in developing countries, remain insufficiently explored.
Purpose: This study examines the effect of AI adoption on export performance, emphasizing the mediating role of innovation capability and the moderating role of competitive intensity.
Research Design/Methodology: This research is applied in purpose and descriptive–survey in method. The statistical population consists of export managers of exporting firms in West Azerbaijan Province, Iran. Data were collected using a non-probability convenience sampling method. The minimum sample size was determined as 176 firms using G*Power, and 189 valid questionnaires were analyzed. Data analysis was performed using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) in SmartPLS.
Findings: The results show that AI adoption has a positive and significant effect on innovation capability and export performance, and that innovation capability plays a significant mediating role. Competitive intensity also significantly moderates the innovation capability–export performance relationship.
Conclusion: The findings indicate that AI adoption enhances export performance mainly through strengthening innovation capability, with varying effects across competitive conditions.
Originality/Value: This study simultaneously examines the mediating role of innovation capability and the moderating role of competitive intensity in the AI–export performance relationship, providing empirical evidence from exporting firms in a developing-country context.