مدیریت تبلیغات و فروش

مدیریت تبلیغات و فروش

شناسایی و تحلیل چالش‌های تولید برق در نیروگاه‌های گازی جنوب عراق: رویکرد دیمتل فازی فیثاغورسی

نویسندگان
مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران
چکیده
هدف: این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی و تحلیل چالش‌های تولید برق در نیروگاه های گازی جنوب برق عراق انجام شده است. با توجه به اهمیت انرژی برق در توسعه اقتصادی-اجتماعی کشورهای در حال توسعه و چالش‌های خاص کشور عراق در زمینه تأمین انرژی، این مطالعه تلاش می‌کند تا عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر ناکارآمدی تولید برق را شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی نماید.

روش: برای دستیابی به هدف پژوهش، ابتدا از طریق مصاحبه با خبرگان جهت استخراج چالش‌های اصلی استفاده شد. سپس به منظور سنجش روابط علی میان عوامل و تعیین میزان تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری هر عامل، از تکنیک دیمتل فازی فیثاغورسی بهره گرفته شد. داده‌ها از طریق پرسشنامه‌های تخصصی جمع‌آوری شده و تحلیل‌ها با روش‌های تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره تحت شرایط عدم قطعیت انجام گرفت.

یافته‌ها: نتایج تحلیل‌ها نشان داد که از بین ۱۹ چالش شناسایی شده، مهم‌ترین عوامل تأثیرگذار شامل «فقدان فناوری‌های انرژی تجدیدپذیر»، «فقدان سیستم‌های مدرن بهره‌برداری و نگهداری» و «فرسودگی شبکه و اتکا به تکنولوژی قدیمی» هستند. علاوه بر این، عواملی چون کمبود سوخت گاز با کیفیت، ضعف نقدینگی و مشکلات مالی و کمبود سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی نقش پررنگی در تشدید مشکلات تولید برق دارند.

نتیجه‌گیری: یافته‌های این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که بحران تولید برق در عراق ماهیتی سیستماتیک دارد و حل آن نیازمند رویکردی چندبعدی شامل نوسازی زیرساخت‌ها، توسعه فناوری‌های نوین، ارتقاء مدیریت مالی و افزایش جذب سرمایه‌های خارجی است. پیشنهاد می‌شود سیاستگذاران با اولویت‌دهی به عوامل علت‌محور و اجرای اصلاحات ساختاری، زمینه را برای توسعه پایدار انرژی در کشور فراهم آورند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Identification and Analysis of Electricity Generation Challenges in Gas Power Plants in Southern Iraq: A Pythagorean Fuzzy DEMATEL Approach

نویسندگان English

Kamil Yaseen Sharrad
Payam Shojaei
Aboalghasem Ebrahimi
Kazem Askarifar
Management and Social Sciences, Faculty of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده English

Purpose: This study aims to identify and analyze the key challenges associated with electricity generation in gas power plants in southern Iraq. Given the critical role of electricity in the socio-economic development of developing countries and Iraq’s particular challenges in energy supply, the research seeks to determine and prioritize the main factors contributing to inefficiencies in power generation.

Method: To achieve the research objectives, expert interviews were initially conducted to extract the primary challenges. Subsequently, the Pythagorean fuzzy DEMATEL (Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) technique was applied to examine causal relationships among the factors and to assess the degree of influence and dependence of each. Data were collected through specialized questionnaires and analyzed using multi-criteria decision-making methods under conditions of uncertainty.

Findings: The analysis revealed that, among the 19 identified challenges, the most influential factors include the lack of renewable energy technologies, absence of modern operation and maintenance systems, and deteriorated infrastructure and reliance on outdated technologies. In addition, challenges such as shortage of high-quality natural gas fuel, financial constraints, and lack of foreign investment significantly exacerbate the inefficiencies in electricity production.

Conclusion: The findings indicate that the electricity generation crisis in Iraq is systemic and multidimensional in nature. Addressing it requires a holistic approach that involves infrastructure modernization, development of advanced technologies, enhancement of financial management, and attraction of foreign investment. It is recommended that policymakers prioritize root-cause factors and implement structural reforms to pave the way for sustainable energy development in the country.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Causal relationship analysis
Electricity generation challenges
Fuzzy Pythagorean DEMATEL
Iraq gas power plants
Renewable energy
  1. Abass, A. Z., & Pavlyuchenko, D. A. (2019). The exploitation of western and southern deserts in Iraq for the production of solar energy. International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering9(6), 4617.
  2. Abdolahinia, H., Heidarizadeh, M., & Rahmati, I. (2024). Assessing Iran and its neighbors for prospects and challenges: The case of the electrical sector. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 193, 114190.
  3. Al-Ghabera, H., Ahmed, R. H., Youssef, M., & Mahmood, A. (2024). Challenges and Opportunities in Implementing Renewable Energy in Iraq. International Journal of Education, Science, Technology, and Engineering (IJESTE)7(2), 64-74.
  4. Al-Ghabera, H., Ahmed, R. H., Youssef, M., & Mahmood, A. (2024). Challenges and Opportunities in Implementing Renewable Energy in Iraq. International Journal of Education, Science, Technology, and Engineering (IJESTE), 7(2), 64-74.
  5. Al-Hamadani, S. (2020). Solar energy as a potential contributor to help bridge the gap between electricity supply and growing demand in Iraq: A review. Int J Adv Appl Sci ISSN, 2252(8814), 8814.
  6. Al-Kayiem, H. H., & Mohammad, S. T. (2019). Potential of renewable energy resources with an emphasis on solar power in Iraq: An outlook. Resources, 8(1), 42.
  7. Al-Khafaji, H. (2018). Electricity generation in Iraq Problems and solutions. Al-Bayan Center for Planning and Studies, 1-12.
  8. Al-Khafaji, H. (2018). Electricity generation in Iraq Problems and solutions. Al-Bayan Center for Planning and Studies, 1-12.
  9. Al-Shammari, Z. W., Azizan, M. M., Rahman, A. S. F., & Hasikin, K. (2021, May). Analysis on renewable energy sources for electricity generation in remote area of Iraq by using HOMER: A case study. In AIP Conference Proceedings(Vol. 2339, No. 1). AIP Publishing.‏
  10. Altai, H. D. S., Abed, F. T., Lazim, M. H., & ALRikabi, H. T. S. (2022). Analysis of the problems of electricity in Iraq and recommendations of methods of overcoming them. Periodicals of Engineering and Natural Sciences (PEN)10(1), 607-614.
  11. Altai, H. D. S., Abed, F. T., Lazim, M. H., & ALRikabi, H. T. S. (2022). Analysis of the problems of electricity in Iraq and recommendations of methods of overcoming them. Periodicals of Engineering and Natural Sciences (PEN), 10(1), 607-614.
  12. Altai, H. D. S., Abed, F. T., Lazim, M. H., & ALRikabi, H. T. S. (2022). Analysis of the problems of electricity in Iraq and recommendations of methods of overcoming them. Periodicals of Engineering and Natural Sciences10(1), 607-614.‏
  13. Al-Yozbaky, O. S. A. D., & Khalel, S. I. (2022). The future of renewable energy in Iraq: potential and challenges. Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Informatics (IJEEI)10(2), 273-291.
  14. Al-Yozbaky, O. S. A. D., & Khalel, S. I. (2022). The future of renewable energy in Iraq: potential and challenges. Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Informatics (IJEEI), 10(2), 273-291.
  15. Ashwarya, S. (2020). Iraq’s Power Sector: Problems and Prospects. Georgetown Journal of International Affairs. https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2020/01/13/iraqs-power-sector-problems-and-prospects/
  16. Azad, M. A. M., Covich, M. P., & Sojoodi, S. (2015). The impact of electricity competitive market establishment on technical efficiency of thermal power plants in Iran. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy5(4), 1010-1015.‏
  17. Bozsik, N., Szeberényi, A., & Bozsik, N. (2023). Examination of the Hungarian electricity industry structure with special regard to renewables. Energies, 16(9), 3826.
  18. Cambini, C., Congiu, R., Jamasb, T., Llorca, M., & Soroush, G. (2020). Energy systems integration: Implications for public policy. Energy policy, 143, 111609.
  19. Dalalah, D.; Hayajneh, M.; Batieha, F. A. (2011). fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model for supplier selection. Expert Systems with Applications, 38, 8384–8391.
  20. Fallahi, M.A., and Ahmadi, V. (2005). Evaluating the efficiency of electricity distribution companies in Iran, Economic Research, 71, 297-320.
  21. Gabrielli, P., Aboutalebi, R., & Sansavini, G. (2022). Mitigating financial risk of corporate power purchase agreements via portfolio optimization. Energy Economics, 109, 105980.
  22. Govindan, K., Khodaverdi, R., & Vafadarnikjoo, A. (2015). Intuitionistic fuzzy based DEMATEL method for developing green practices and performances in a green supply chain. Expert Systems with Applications42(20), 7207-7220.
  23. Govindan, K., Khodaverdi, R., & Jafarian, A. (2013). A fuzzy multi criteria approach for measuring sustainability performance of a supplier based on triple bottom line approach. Journal of Cleaner production47, 345-354.
  24. Giri, B. C., Molla, M. U., & Biswas, P. (2022). Pythagorean fuzzy DEMATEL method for supplier selection in sustainable supply chain management. Expert Systems with Applications193, 116396.
  25. Hu, J. L., Huang, Y. S., & You, C. Y. (2024). Renewable Energy Generation Efficiency of Asian Economies: An Application of Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis. Energies17(18), 4682.
  26. International Energy Agency. (2025). National Climate Resilience Assessment for Iraq. https://www.iea.org/reports/national-climate-resilience-assessment-for-iraq
  27. Keyhani, A., Ghasemi-Varnamkhasti, M., Khanali, M., & Abbaszadeh, R. (2010). An assessment of wind energy potential as a power generation source in the capital of Iran, Tehran. Energy35(1), 188-201.‏
  28. Khosravi, M. R. , Shahroodi, K. , Amirteimoori, A. and Delafrooz, N. (2022). Developing an Analytical-Mathematical Model for Evaluating the Efficiency of the Power Production, Transmission, and Distribution Companies in the Electric Power Industry of Iran: An Network Data Envelopment Analysis (NDEA) Approach with Undesirable Outputs. Industrial Management Journal14(2), 220-249. doi: 10.22059/imj.2022.339078.1007925.
  29. Kunugi, Y., Arimura, T. H., & Nakai, M. (2021). The long-term impact of wind power generation on a local community: Economics analysis of subjective well-being data in Chōshi City. Energies, 14(13), 3984.
  30. Lunevich, I., & Kloppenburg, S. (2023). Wind energy meets buildings? Generating socio-technical change in the urban built environment through vanguard visions. Energy Research & Social Science, 98, 103017.
  31. Mehedintu, A., Soava, G., Sterpu, M., & Grecu, E. (2021). Evolution and forecasting of the renewable energy consumption in the frame of sustainable development: EU vs. Romania. Sustainability, 13(18), 10327.
  32. Mills, R., & Salman, M. (2020). Powering Iraq: Challenges facing the electricity sector in Iraq. Al-Bayan Center for Planning and Studies: Baghdad, Iraq, 1-30.
  33. Nadhum, A. A., & Erzaij, K. R. (2020). Evaluating implementation of electric power generation projects in Iraq. In IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering (Vol. 901, No. 1, p. 012034). IOP Publishing.
  34. Rashid, S., Peters, I., Wickel, M., & Magazowski, C. (2012). Electricity problem in Iraq. Economics and Planning of Technical Urban Infrastructure Systems.
  35. Rokicki, T., Bórawski, P., Gradziuk, B., Gradziuk, P., Mrówczyńska-Kamińska, A., Kozak, J., ... & Wojtczuk, K. (2021). Differentiation and changes of household electricity prices in EU countries. Energies, 14(21), 6894.
  36. World Bank Group. 2014. Doing Business Economy Profile )2015(: Iran, Islamic Rep.. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21234 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
  37. World Bank. (2024). Iraq electricity sector diagnostic report. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/iraq-electricity-sector-2024
  38. (2024). Iraq Electricity. Available at: https://www.worldometers.info/electricity/iraq-electricity/.
  39. Zhang, G., Davoodi, S., Band, S. S., Ghorbani, H., Mosavi, A., & Moslehpour, M. (2022). A robust approach to pore pressure prediction applying petrophysical log data aided by machine learning techniques. Energy Reports, 8, 2233-2247.
  40. Ziba, F. (2008). Regulation, Efficiency and Productivity in Electricity Distribution Companies of Iran. Iranian Journal of Economic Research10(34), 179-200.